Discover the definitive analysis of the January 2026 transfer market. We rate the moves of Liverpool, Manchester City, Atlético Madrid, and more. Who won the winter window?
The winter transfer window in European football is notoriously complicated. January is usually a difficult time for buyers, as almost no one wants to sell their top talent mid-season. However, there are always exceptions to the rule. Some clubs need to raise funds to balance their books, while others are forced to offload disgruntled players looking to join stronger teams.
In this article for Afun Casino , we break down the most impactful transfers of January 2026, assigning ratings to the clubs and players involved. From Liverpool's multi-million pound investment to Manchester City's masterstroke, here's everything you need to know for your next football bets.
Manchester City: Market Mastery (Grade: A+)
Manchester City have delivered a masterclass in management this winter. A year ago, in 2025, the club spent almost £180 million on six players, and none of them were a resounding success. Learning from their mistakes, this time they have opted for proven quality at a bargain price.
The Signing: Marc Guéhi (Crystal Palace to Man City, £20m)
For Manchester City (Note: A+):
This is undoubtedly the steal of the transfer window. City have secured a proven Premier League defender for less than £100 million in total (including other signings), and Guéhi should make an immediate impact at the Etihad, similar to Antoine Semenyo. Pep Guardiola was short on centre-backs, and he has acquired not only a tremendous defender but a fantastic professional and a natural leader. The fact that they beat their eternal rivals Liverpool to this signing makes the victory even sweeter for the fans.
For Crystal Palace (Grade: D):
A disappointing but inevitable departure. Palace were prepared to let Guéhi join Liverpool last summer, but manager Oliver Glasner blocked the deal as he had no replacement. With the player's contract entering its final six months and his refusal to renew, the Eagles had no option but to sell him for a pittance rather than lose him for free. Losing their captain and leader mid-season virtually kills any European hopes for Palace.
For Marc Guéhi:
A well-deserved step forward. Guéhi has taken a risk by joining City in a World Cup year, but it's a chance to play at the highest level after captaining Palace to their first major honor.
Liverpool: High-Risk Bet and Future (Note: B-)
Arne Slot's Liverpool desperately needed reinforcements at the heart of their defense. With Ibrahima Konaté set to leave as a free agent in the summer and 2025 signing Giovanni Leoni recovering from ACL surgery, the priority was finding support for Virgil van Dijk.
The Signing: Jérémy Jacquet (Rennes to Liverpool, £60m)
For Liverpool (Note: B-):
The Reds They've paid a hefty fee (£60m) for a French Under-21 international with limited experience at the highest level. However, Jacquet has the potential to become a long-term hero at Anfield. He possesses the pace and strength to overpower opponents and the passing range to make a difference in Liverpool's build-up play. It's an expensive gamble, but with a very high ceiling.
For Rennes (Note: A):
Another huge win for Rennes' underrated talent factory. Jacquet joins a stellar list of graduates including Camavinga, Dembélé, and Doku. Selling a 20-year-old for £60 million and managing to retain him until the end of the season while chasing European qualification is masterstroke management.
For Jérémy Jacquet (Grade: B+):
A dream move, though it comes with pressure. Jacquet showed maturity by choosing Liverpool over Chelsea, concerned about playing time at Stamford Bridge. Slot will give him the necessary minutes to develop and aspire to a place in the French national team.
Atlético de Madrid: Simeone's Bargains (Note: B+)
Atlético Madrid needed an attacking spark after a dull 0-0 draw against Levante. Diego Simeone was looking for something different in the final third and he found it in Serie A.
The Signing: Ademola Lookman (Atalanta to Atlético, €35m)
For Atlético (Note: B+):
Simeone has finally landed his man for a bargain price. Lookman brings electrifying dribbling and lethal finishing ability with both feet. His track record of brilliance in European matches could be vital to Atlético's Champions League aspirations. Although there were fears about his decline, his excellent performances with Nigeria at the Africa Cup of Nations have dispelled those doubts.
For Atalanta (Note: D-):
A costly miscalculation. They should have sold Lookman last summer when his value was sky-high after a 20-goal campaign. Now, they're selling him for a modest fee of €35 million, reflecting his drop in performance (just two Serie A goals in 2025-26). Their stubbornness has cost them millions.
For Ademola Lookman (Grade: A-):
A stroke of luck. He leaves Atalanta, where his performance had declined, to join a team with real title ambitions. He could be a Julián Álvarez-style success under Simeone if he stays motivated.
Crystal Palace: Panic or Necessity? (Note: C)
While Palace lost their defensive leader, they desperately tried to solve their attacking problems by spending a fortune on a striker who has had a terrible season.
The Signing: Jørgen Strand Larsen (Wolves to Crystal Palace, £48m)
For the Palace (Note: C):
A huge gamble. Palace needed a striker with Jean-Philippe Mateta's departure imminent, but paying almost £50 million for a "potential one-season wonder" is obscene. Strand Larsen has only scored one goal in 19 appearances for the club. Premier League This season. Although he has room for improvement at 25, Palace have overpaid in an attempt to salvage his season.
For Wolves (Note: A-):
Outstanding work! Newcastle offered £55m in the summer, and Wolves made the mistake of not selling. However, to get £48m now, after the player's poor performance, is truly amazing. If they reinvest the money, the fans won't miss him.
For Strand Larsen (Grade: B+):
A much-needed change of scenery. After a historically poor first half of the season with Wolves, he now has the opportunity to rediscover his form at a club that creates plenty of chances. It's the move he needed to get in the right mindset ahead of the World Cup with Norway.
Other Notable Movements
The transfer market also saw some interesting moves in goal. Marc-André ter Stegen left Barcelona to join Girona.
Quick Analysis (Note: B):
For Ter Stegen, it was obvious that if he wanted any chance of making Germany's World Cup squad, he needed to leave Barça, where Hansi Flick barely gave him any playing time in the Copa del Rey. A move to neighboring Girona makes sense for a player who never really wanted to leave Barcelona, allowing him to remind the world of his worth.
Conclusion: What do these signings mean for betting?
The January 2026 market has taught us some clear lessons:
- Manchester City They have strengthened defensively without breaking the bank, making them even stronger favorites for the league and European competitions. Their defense, now with Guéhi, will be difficult to penetrate.
- Liverpool He's betting on the future. Although Jacquet is talented, his inexperience could result in short-term defensive volatility, something to consider in the "Both Teams to Score" markets.
- Atletico Madrid They could see an upswing in their offensive stats. Lookman's arrival suggests a more dynamic approach to offense for the second half of the season.
Keep an eye on how these new signings integrate into their teams. Quick adaptation is key in winter transfers, and as we saw with Strand Larsen, the price tag doesn't always guarantee immediate performance.
